Relevância das Condições Meteorológicas para a Ocorrência da COVID-19 / Relevance of Meteorological Conditions for the Occurrence of COVID-19

Desde a declaração da COVID-19 como Emergência Internacional de Saúde Pública (PHEIC) pela Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS), tem-se tentado identificar factores que afectam o comportamento da pandemia para garantir melhor controlo. Dos diversos factores, os meteorológicos estão entre os mais importantes. Objectivo: Analisar a relação estatística entre duas variáveis meteorológicas ­ temperatura e pressão atmosférica ­ e a frequência de casos confirmados de COVID-19 em Moçambique. Tipo de estudo: observacional e longitudinal e estatístico. Local: Moçambique, área de Maputo (Província e Cidade) e Província de Nampula. População: De acordo com o Censo 2017, Moçambique tem 27 909 798 habitantes, área de Maputo tem 3 595 547 e a Província de Nampula tem 6 102 867. Métodos: Os dados meteorológicos foram obtidos diariamente nas bases de dados AccuWeather, Time and Date AS e Weather Spark, e o número de casos confirmados de COVID-19 a partir da informação diária dos órgãos oficiais de comunicação do Governo de Moçambique.

Since the declaration of COVID-19 as an International Public Health Emergency (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO), efforts have been made to identify factors that affect the behavior of the pandemic to ensure better control. Of the various factors, meteorological ones are among the most important. Objective: To analyze the statistical relationship between two meteorological variables ­ temperature and atmospheric pressure ­ and the frequency of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Mozambique. Type of study: observational and longitudinal and statistical. Location: Mozambique, Maputo area (Province and City) and Nampula Province. Population: According to the 2017 Census, Mozambique has 27,909,798 inhabitants, Maputo area has 3,595,547 and Nampula Province has 6,102,867. Methods: Meteorological data were obtained daily from AccuWeather, Time and Date databases. AS and Weather Spark, and the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 from daily information from the official communication bodies of the Government of Mozambique.

Potential impact of temperature and atmospheric pressure on the number of cases of COVID-19 in Mozambique, Southern Africa

The potential reasons why COVID-19 is not spreading rapidly in Sub-Saharan Africa include sociopolitical, biological and environmental variables. Among the latter, some studies indicate temperature and atmospheric pressure as significantly influential. Could they have impact on the number of COVID-19 cases in Mozambique? The aim of this study is to analyze the relationships between weather and the frequency of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Mozambique, Southern Africa. The study was conducted in Mozambique, Maputo area (Province and City) and Nampula Province. Daily history of weather variables ­ daily maximum and minimum temperatures and atmospheric pressure ­ was obtained from three online databases (AccuWeather, Time and Date AS and WeatherSpark) and the number of COVID-19 cases from official Government's daily Bulletins. The main statistical analyses were Pearson correlations between the variables. The first case was observed in the Maputo area on 22 March, 2020 and the cases in Mozambique increased exponentially up to 769 by 24 June, 2020. The first three cases in Nampula province were observed on 24 May 2020 but its frequency surpassed Maputo area's within one month. Temperatures showed negative correlations with the number of cases in all areas and pressure showed positive correlations in Maputo area and Nampula Province. A bubble chart allowed the visualization of the combined relationship of both weather variables and the number of cases, suggesting that the number of cases increases as temperature decreases and pressure increases. Temperature and atmospheric pressure seems to be correlated with the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Mozambique. Thus, decision-makers should consider weather as a predictor of the rate at which the pandemic is spreading in the country